Thursday, March 02, 2006
DAY 978 - A.B.B.
The Democrats are up again, and instead of doing the usual cut-and-paste from Wikipedia, I thought I'd go through the three retreads that might run in 2008, and assess their chances. They are of course John Kerry, John Edwards, and Al Gore. We all pretty much know their life stories, so we'll dispense with that. First is Kerry.
In my opinion, John Kerry was critically wounded by the Rove image-making doomsday machine as a flip-flopper. It's a catchy, easily understood characterization, and damned if Kerry doesn't keep reinforcing it almost every time he opens his mouth. The man cannot make a simple declarative statement about anything without leaving himself an elaborate rhetorical trail of crumbs he can later use to extricate himself. Kerry's judgment in the running the 2004 campaign can, I believe, be as legitimately questioned as W's judgment in running of, well, everything he's managed to screw up in the last 5 years. Even so, he lost by a Diebold-touchscreen-thin margin, and should expect to do better against a less well-established non-incumbent. It's very hard, though, to convince your own party to run you again when you didn't get it done the first time. Democrats still remember Adlai Stevenson's back-to-back shellackings in the 50's, and how much better getting a new, nicely shaven and made-up face worked out. And nobody likes a loser.
Edwards, naturally, faces the same problem, only double. He also lost the nomination in 2004 as well the general election. His relentless "Two Americas" speeches became tiresome during the primaries, and his relative inexperience in foreign policy did not serve him well in the midst of a foreign war. Nothing on either of those scores has changed much in the last year and a half. He's still talking about Two Americas, and even though he writes op-eds and serves on the Council of Foreign Relations, as a Democrat and no longer a Senator he obviously cannot be directly or even indirectly involved in the Bush Administration's decision making. His history as a trial lawyer will also continue to hurt his electability.
Al Gore is the most interesting of the three, I think. Gore out-polled George W. Bush nationwide in the 2000 election, and if not for the once-in-a-millennium electoral cluster-fuck that was Florida, he would have been president. I think the voters now associate him with the peace and prosperity (and governing competence) of the Clinton years, whereas in 2000, they associated him with the lying fellatio of the Clinton years. It was Gore's inability or unwillingness to play the Clinton peace-prosperity-and-competence angle that caused him to disassociate himself from his boss and ultimately fall short in the election. I doubt he would make the same mistake again. Gore has recently made some strident speeches against the Bush Administration's Iraq policy, and has managed not to come off as a bitter curmudgeon, which he has to find encouraging. As for the "loser" tag, Gore has a compelling case given subsequent events that he did not in fact lose in 2000, although he'd be wise to downplay that argument. The only thing worse than a loser is a sore loser.
In my opinion, John Kerry was critically wounded by the Rove image-making doomsday machine as a flip-flopper. It's a catchy, easily understood characterization, and damned if Kerry doesn't keep reinforcing it almost every time he opens his mouth. The man cannot make a simple declarative statement about anything without leaving himself an elaborate rhetorical trail of crumbs he can later use to extricate himself. Kerry's judgment in the running the 2004 campaign can, I believe, be as legitimately questioned as W's judgment in running of, well, everything he's managed to screw up in the last 5 years. Even so, he lost by a Diebold-touchscreen-thin margin, and should expect to do better against a less well-established non-incumbent. It's very hard, though, to convince your own party to run you again when you didn't get it done the first time. Democrats still remember Adlai Stevenson's back-to-back shellackings in the 50's, and how much better getting a new, nicely shaven and made-up face worked out. And nobody likes a loser.
Edwards, naturally, faces the same problem, only double. He also lost the nomination in 2004 as well the general election. His relentless "Two Americas" speeches became tiresome during the primaries, and his relative inexperience in foreign policy did not serve him well in the midst of a foreign war. Nothing on either of those scores has changed much in the last year and a half. He's still talking about Two Americas, and even though he writes op-eds and serves on the Council of Foreign Relations, as a Democrat and no longer a Senator he obviously cannot be directly or even indirectly involved in the Bush Administration's decision making. His history as a trial lawyer will also continue to hurt his electability.
Al Gore is the most interesting of the three, I think. Gore out-polled George W. Bush nationwide in the 2000 election, and if not for the once-in-a-millennium electoral cluster-fuck that was Florida, he would have been president. I think the voters now associate him with the peace and prosperity (and governing competence) of the Clinton years, whereas in 2000, they associated him with the lying fellatio of the Clinton years. It was Gore's inability or unwillingness to play the Clinton peace-prosperity-and-competence angle that caused him to disassociate himself from his boss and ultimately fall short in the election. I doubt he would make the same mistake again. Gore has recently made some strident speeches against the Bush Administration's Iraq policy, and has managed not to come off as a bitter curmudgeon, which he has to find encouraging. As for the "loser" tag, Gore has a compelling case given subsequent events that he did not in fact lose in 2000, although he'd be wise to downplay that argument. The only thing worse than a loser is a sore loser.
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
DAY 980 - A.B.B.
Back to the GOP. We traveled to Iowa last time, but we're back in Arkansas today. As always, much of this is lifted directly from Wikipedia. You get what you pay for. Governor Michael Huckabee (R-AR) was born August 24, 1955 in Hope, Arkansas (yes, the very same). Huckabee graduated magna cum laude from Ouachita Baptist University, with a Bachelors degree and attended Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary in Fort Worth, Texas. He married his high school sweetheart Janet McCain (no relation) in 1974. Huckabee was pastor of Southern Baptist churches in Arkadelphia, Texarkana, and Pine Bluff, Arkansas. He was President of the Arkansas Baptist State Convention from 1989 to 1991, and also served as President of a religious-oriented television station.
Huckabee's lost to incumbent U.S. Senator Dale Bumpers in 1992 in his first attempt at politics. In a 1993 special election Huckabee was elected to the post of Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas. In 1996, he became Governor when Jim Guy Tucker resigned after being convicted in the Whitewater scandal, and has served in that capacity ever since, being re-elected in 1998 and 2002.
Huckabee has made health care a high priority in his administration. Soon after taking office, Huckabee signed legislation creating a health insurance program designed to provide insurance to children of families who could not qualify for Medicaid but could not afford private insurance. Later, in 2000, Huckabee also led a campaign to funnel 100 percent of the state's tobacco settlement revenues into the state's healthcare system, rather than into the general fund.
He was made the chair of the Southern Governors' Association in 1999 and served in that capacity through 2000. He has chaired the Southern Growth Policies Board, the Southern Region Education Board, the Southern Technology Council, and the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, and currently serves as Chair of the Education Commission of the States, and as Chairman of the National Governors Association, which is often a steppingtone to the presidency. He is also a member of the Republican Governors Association.
In early 2006, Huckabee - along with fellow governors Rick Perry (R-TX); Jim Doyle (D-WI); and Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) traveled to the Middle East and South Asia as part of Department of Defense-sponsored trip to provide the state leaders with an idea of the conditions under which American forces are serving. While visiting Baghdad and Tikrit, Huckabee and the governors received briefings from Gen. George Casey and Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad.
Huckabee was, for much of his adult life, badly overweight. After developing diabetes and suffering chest pains, he began a disciplined diet and exercise regimen, and has since lost over 110 pounds. He now emphasizes physical fitness for all Arkansans.
Having never achieved national office, he has no ratings from interest groups. On the main wedge issues, Huckabee is pro-life, but respects choice; as a former Southern Baptist preacher, he's not only against gay marriage, but endorses something called "covenant marriage," which is meant to strengthen the bonds of traditional marriage; he's a pro-gun outdoorsman; and he supports the death penalty, but has been accused of being overzealous in commuting sentences.
Regarding that last point, should Huckabee run for president, he should have an interesting time explaining the Wayne Dumond case. Wayne Dumond is a convicted rapist who would later commit murder in Missouri after being released under Huckabee's watch. Dumond's case first drew attention in the early 1990s as then-Governor Bill Clinton began to increase his political stature in anticipation of a Presidential run. Some conservative commentators began to question Clinton's denial of clemency for Dumond in light of the fact that Dumond's victim was a distant relative of Clinton's and that Dumond had subsequently been assaulted and castrated by assailants with ties to the local sheriff, a friend of Clinton's. In order to appease his critics without giving the appearance of personally giving in, Clinton compromised by allowing Jim Guy Tucker, acting Governor while Clinton was out of the state campaigning in 1992, to commute Dumond's life sentence to 39 years and six months, making Dumond eligible for parole.
Shortly after Huckabee became Governor in 1996, the Arkansas parole board denied parole for Dumond. A month later, Huckabee met with Dumond's wife and announced his intention that Dumond be set free. Dumond's wife noted that "he [Huckabee] has always been disturbed about the way the Clinton people never wanted my husband free". A month later, in an unprecedented act, Huckabee met privately with the parole board to talk about the Dumond case among other things.
Huckabee's only official action in the Dumond case was when he denied a clemency request from Dumond. In a letter to Dumond, however, Huckabee made clear that "my desire is that you be released from prison." On that same day, Dumond was granted parole by the parole board. Huckabee denies influencing the parole board in any way, but acknowledges some responsibility for signing Dumond's parole.
I know it's hard to believe, but Arkansas' official web sites don't have any campaign finance data back to the 2002 gubernatorial election. Suffice it to say, as a Republican from Arkansas, Mike Huckabee in the White House would certainly make Wal-Mart and the Walton family very happy.
Mike and Janet have three children. Huckabee has authored or co-authored four books:
- Character is the Issue, a memoir (inspired by the crisis surrounding the incidents prior to his taking office as governor),
- Kids Who Kill, a book about juvenile violence (inspired by the Jonesboro massacre, which took place during his tenure as governor),
- Living Beyond Your Lifetime, a guide for leaving a personal legacy, and
- Quit Digging Your Grave with a Knife and Fork, a health and exercise inspirational guide (based on his personal health experience).
Man, I thought Vilsack wanted to be Clinton. Huckabee is from Hope, his wife ran for office (she lost the Arkansas Secretary of State race in 2002), he plays a musical instrument, he was fat to the point of ill health, and now he's in good shape, he's a Southern Baptist, he's been Governor of Arkansas, and he likes fat chicks in berets. Ok, I made up that last one, but you have to admit the resemblance is eerie. Of course, he's a Republican, but he's almost as moderate as Clinton was as a Democrat. If he ran against Hillary, I think they would destroy themselves the way matter and anti-matter do when they collide. He's actually got a decent shot. I don't think he's conservative enough or experienced enough in national politics to get the nomination, but he has the preacher angle working for him, and he seems to rate fairly high on the charisma scale from what I've read. The whole Dumond thing may be a killer (sorry). If Rove or a Rove-like being (perish the thought) is on one of the other GOP teams, they'll beat the hell out of it in the primaries. He'll also have a hard time with name recognition behind McCain, Giuliani, and even Romney.
Huckabee's lost to incumbent U.S. Senator Dale Bumpers in 1992 in his first attempt at politics. In a 1993 special election Huckabee was elected to the post of Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas. In 1996, he became Governor when Jim Guy Tucker resigned after being convicted in the Whitewater scandal, and has served in that capacity ever since, being re-elected in 1998 and 2002.
Huckabee has made health care a high priority in his administration. Soon after taking office, Huckabee signed legislation creating a health insurance program designed to provide insurance to children of families who could not qualify for Medicaid but could not afford private insurance. Later, in 2000, Huckabee also led a campaign to funnel 100 percent of the state's tobacco settlement revenues into the state's healthcare system, rather than into the general fund.
He was made the chair of the Southern Governors' Association in 1999 and served in that capacity through 2000. He has chaired the Southern Growth Policies Board, the Southern Region Education Board, the Southern Technology Council, and the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, and currently serves as Chair of the Education Commission of the States, and as Chairman of the National Governors Association, which is often a steppingtone to the presidency. He is also a member of the Republican Governors Association.
In early 2006, Huckabee - along with fellow governors Rick Perry (R-TX); Jim Doyle (D-WI); and Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) traveled to the Middle East and South Asia as part of Department of Defense-sponsored trip to provide the state leaders with an idea of the conditions under which American forces are serving. While visiting Baghdad and Tikrit, Huckabee and the governors received briefings from Gen. George Casey and Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad.
Huckabee was, for much of his adult life, badly overweight. After developing diabetes and suffering chest pains, he began a disciplined diet and exercise regimen, and has since lost over 110 pounds. He now emphasizes physical fitness for all Arkansans.
Having never achieved national office, he has no ratings from interest groups. On the main wedge issues, Huckabee is pro-life, but respects choice; as a former Southern Baptist preacher, he's not only against gay marriage, but endorses something called "covenant marriage," which is meant to strengthen the bonds of traditional marriage; he's a pro-gun outdoorsman; and he supports the death penalty, but has been accused of being overzealous in commuting sentences.
Regarding that last point, should Huckabee run for president, he should have an interesting time explaining the Wayne Dumond case. Wayne Dumond is a convicted rapist who would later commit murder in Missouri after being released under Huckabee's watch. Dumond's case first drew attention in the early 1990s as then-Governor Bill Clinton began to increase his political stature in anticipation of a Presidential run. Some conservative commentators began to question Clinton's denial of clemency for Dumond in light of the fact that Dumond's victim was a distant relative of Clinton's and that Dumond had subsequently been assaulted and castrated by assailants with ties to the local sheriff, a friend of Clinton's. In order to appease his critics without giving the appearance of personally giving in, Clinton compromised by allowing Jim Guy Tucker, acting Governor while Clinton was out of the state campaigning in 1992, to commute Dumond's life sentence to 39 years and six months, making Dumond eligible for parole.
Shortly after Huckabee became Governor in 1996, the Arkansas parole board denied parole for Dumond. A month later, Huckabee met with Dumond's wife and announced his intention that Dumond be set free. Dumond's wife noted that "he [Huckabee] has always been disturbed about the way the Clinton people never wanted my husband free". A month later, in an unprecedented act, Huckabee met privately with the parole board to talk about the Dumond case among other things.
Huckabee's only official action in the Dumond case was when he denied a clemency request from Dumond. In a letter to Dumond, however, Huckabee made clear that "my desire is that you be released from prison." On that same day, Dumond was granted parole by the parole board. Huckabee denies influencing the parole board in any way, but acknowledges some responsibility for signing Dumond's parole.
I know it's hard to believe, but Arkansas' official web sites don't have any campaign finance data back to the 2002 gubernatorial election. Suffice it to say, as a Republican from Arkansas, Mike Huckabee in the White House would certainly make Wal-Mart and the Walton family very happy.
Mike and Janet have three children. Huckabee has authored or co-authored four books:
- Character is the Issue, a memoir (inspired by the crisis surrounding the incidents prior to his taking office as governor),
- Kids Who Kill, a book about juvenile violence (inspired by the Jonesboro massacre, which took place during his tenure as governor),
- Living Beyond Your Lifetime, a guide for leaving a personal legacy, and
- Quit Digging Your Grave with a Knife and Fork, a health and exercise inspirational guide (based on his personal health experience).
Man, I thought Vilsack wanted to be Clinton. Huckabee is from Hope, his wife ran for office (she lost the Arkansas Secretary of State race in 2002), he plays a musical instrument, he was fat to the point of ill health, and now he's in good shape, he's a Southern Baptist, he's been Governor of Arkansas, and he likes fat chicks in berets. Ok, I made up that last one, but you have to admit the resemblance is eerie. Of course, he's a Republican, but he's almost as moderate as Clinton was as a Democrat. If he ran against Hillary, I think they would destroy themselves the way matter and anti-matter do when they collide. He's actually got a decent shot. I don't think he's conservative enough or experienced enough in national politics to get the nomination, but he has the preacher angle working for him, and he seems to rate fairly high on the charisma scale from what I've read. The whole Dumond thing may be a killer (sorry). If Rove or a Rove-like being (perish the thought) is on one of the other GOP teams, they'll beat the hell out of it in the primaries. He'll also have a hard time with name recognition behind McCain, Giuliani, and even Romney.
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