A.B.B. 130

With the Mets taking an off day on Thursday, let's focus on the Anybody But Bush race. Yesterday, Barack Obama met with former Democratic Party foe Hillary Clinton in the symbolically chosen town of Unity, New Hampshire. It's a good thing they didn't meet in Hillary's first choice, I Hate You And Everything You Stand For, North Dakota.



It's OK, it's a "Land of friendly people!"

Anyway, it's Obama vs. McCain, or Hussein vs. Bush Part II, if you listen to each one of their campaign staffs. Actually, Obama probably wouldn't want that matchup, based on what happened the first time. How are they doing? Let's run down the state polls.

Alabama - McCain safe
Alaska - McCain close
Arizona - McCain safe
Arkansas - McCain safe
California - Obama safe
Colorado - Obama close
Connecticut - Obama close
Delaware - Obama safe
D.C. - Obama safe
Florida - McCain safe
Georgia - Too close to call
Hawaii - Obama safe
Idaho - McCain safe
Illinois - Obama safe
Indiana - Too close to call
Iowa - Obama close
Kansas - McCain safe
Kentucky - McCain safe
Louisiana - McCain safe
Maine - Obama safe
Maryland - Obama safe
Massachusetts - Obama safe
Michigan - Obama close
Minnesota - Obama safe
Mississippi - McCain close
Missouri - McCain close
Montana - McCain close
Nebraska - McCain safe
Nevada - McCain close
New Hampshire - Obama safe
New Jersey - Obama safe
New Mexico - Obama close
New York - Obama safe
North Carolina - McCain close
North Dakota - McCain close
Ohio - Too close to call
Oklahoma - McCain safe
Oregon - Obama close
Pennsylvania - Obama close
Rhode Island - Obama safe
South Carolina - McCain safe
South Dakota - McCain safe
Tennessee - McCain safe
Texas - McCain close
Utah - McCain safe
Vermont - Obama safe
Virginia - Too close to call
Washington - Obama safe
West Virginia - McCain safe
Wisconsin - Obama safe
Wyoming - McCain safe

Tallying up the electoral votes, that gives us:

McCain safe - 126
McCain close - 80
Obama safe - 200
Obama close - 73
Too close to call - 59

If the election were held today, Obama would win with at least 273 electoral votes to a maximum of 265 for McCain. The battleground states appear to be Virginia, Indiana, Georgia and Ohio, but Obama would win even if he lost all four and maintained his advantage in the rest of the states where he is leading. And if these polls were even a semblance of reality, which we know they are not.

I would have to conclude from this cursory analysis that Obama will have to screw the pooch pretty badly to lose this election. He has 200 safe electoral votes to McCain's 126, which is an enormous cushion. With Obama's cash advantage by way of his decision to decline public funding, you would have to believe that he will only improve his numbers in the battleground states and possibly even turn one or two McCain-close states.

Obama has to watch out for Pennsylvania, Oregon, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. These are all trending his way right now, but not by much. Pennsylvania and Oregon have been going Democratic in the past few elections, but both are high in a demographic he has struggled with, working class whites. Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico have traditionally been Republican strongholds. If he has any more of these Reverend Wright flare-ups or other gaffes, all five of these states could go to McCain.

As for McCain, the fact that my home state of Texas is only in the "close" column says a lot about his candidacy. He has a tremendous amount of work to do, and it is difficult to imagine that he is up to the task. He'll have to turn at least a few of those five states I mentioned earlier, and he'll have to win Ohio, Virginia, and for heavens sake Georgia to have any chance. I can't believe Georgia is a battleground state. That might be apocryphal, but there are a large number of African Americans in increasingly prominent positions there, so it could be true.

WRIGHT IS RIGHT

I missed all the fun, again. I was banished to our makeshift office, which would otherwise be our spare downstairs bedroom, because my wife was having her book club in the (Half A) Man Cave. Since I knew that I wouldn't be getting the 42" screen, I dawdled, watching The Daily Show, Colbert, and PTI on the DVR in the bedroom until about 6:30, and then I listened to some podcasts until about 7 pm. When MLB.TV came on on the office PC, I was expecting another disaster, but happily, I saw the 2 2 4 line for the Mets in the first three innings. I had to check RotoTimes.com to figure out that David Wright had homered twice.

Then, as if to spite me, the Mets offense took the rest of the night off, and John Maine got into enough scrapes to make me nervous. Thankfully, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, and Duaner Sanchez each pitched a scoreless inning and ended all hopes of a Mariner sweep. The Mets won it 8-2, and will enjoy their rare home day off today as they prepare for a four game set with the Bronx Bummers. The Yanks have been showing faint signs of life lately, winning seven of ten and settling firmly in third place behind the Rays. Pretty much like us, really. It should be a good series. Not Ana Ivanovic in tennis whites good, but close.

WORSE THAN THE WORST

Yipe. An 11-0 shellacking by the freaking Mariners. Yeah, this was surely all Willie Randolph's fault.

R.A. Dickey, it turns out, is a knuckleballer. He's a knuckleballer with a 5.77 ERA coming in who the Mets could not figure out for the life of them, failing to mount even a serious threat for the first six innings Mr. Dickey was on the mound, and merely loading the bases with two outs in the 7th. The score was 10-0 by then, so even if Jose Reyes had come through, it would have been at best 10-4. What a sad and sorry lot.

Ok, we'll try this again. This game, they should win. Miguel Batista, who is replacing the injured Erik Bedard tonight, has an ERA of 6.26, and a 3-9 record. He lost his starting job earlier in the season and wasn't much better in the bullpen, and is only starting due to Bedard's injury. We have our #2, John Maine. Thank goodness the Phillies are still losing. By the way, the 16-2 runs-scored start to this series has put the Mets at a -8 run differential for the year, which is right what our record would indicate it should be.

FRANKLY, I COULD HAVE WAITED 38 YEARS

I made it to the Man Cave, and just as MLB.TV finished buffering and a picture popped up, there was King Felix's grand slam sailing over the right field fence. It was a replay, but I didn't like seeing it much no matter when it happened.

4-0 Mariners. And I hadn't even got the couch cushions arranged yet. Damn it! Then Felix proceeded to stymie the Mets for the next few innings. At least that I expected. The Mets did get a run and knocked Felix out of the game in the 5th on a wild pitch and a mad dash home by Carlos Beltran. Felix stood too much on the plate, and Beltran barreled into him, rolling over his left ankle. He's the proverbial day-to-day, but as Dan Patrick once asked, aren't we all?

The Mets had the inklings of a rally in the 9th off emergency closer Sean Green (not Jewish), but it fizzled when Carlos Delgado was viciously struck out by Green's replacement, Arthur Rhodes. Damion Easley also K'd, looking, to end the game at 5-2.

To recap, if King Felix doesn't close his eyes and hit a granny, that one was ours. Ok, you have to blame David Wright for booting a grounder and prolonging the inning as well, but still. Thirty-seven years since an AL pitcher has hit a grand slam, and the Mets have to be the ones to give up the next one. Sigh.

EASTWARD, HO!

The Mets completed the west-of-Texas segment of their schedule with a 2-games-to-1 series win over the Rockies. Believe it or not, we are only two games back of Philadelphia in the loss column. They have played two more games than us due to all the lousy weather in New York this year, plus they have a game in hand due to scheduling. Had we won the two rainouts that have yet to be played (vs. Pittsburgh and the Yankees), we'd be only two and a half out. Sorry about that, Willie.

As for the game this weekend, John Maine was stellar in the opener, allowing only six hits, three walks and two runs in six and two-thirds innings. The Mets rode a five-run explosion in the 2nd off Rockies ace Aaron Cook to an easy 7-2 win. The two-out hits in the 2nd inning were fairly breath-taking. Jose Reyes, Endy Chavez, and David Wright all smacked hard RBI singles off Cook when it looked like he had escaped the worst of it. I thought Cook was a goner at that point, but he ended up going seven, probably because the Rockies bullpen is a shambles. I turned it off after 4 innings and headed to bed, even on a Friday night. I am old.

Game 2 was a lowlight of the trip. Fortunately, I missed it because I didn't have the energy to go up to the Man Cave at 8 pm to tune in. We had just committed to spending about $7,000 on a home improvement project, and dropping that kind of money on something that is not going to be any fun at all is exhausting. The Mets took a quick lead on a Jose Reyes triple and a Luis Castillo sac fly, and Petey was strong for the first four, striking out four and only allowing two hits and a walk. Then the homers and singles and doubles started and wouldn't stop. Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe went back-to-back to lead off the 5th, then Troy Tulowitzki doubled, pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez singled, Willie Taveras singled home a run, Jeff Baker doubled home two more (you get the idea). When Claudio Vargas is deemed a better option, you aren't pitching well. Vargas did get a DP to end the inning, but the Mets had no answer for Jimenez, who lasted all the way through the 8th. The final was 7-1.

Sunday afternoon brought better things for the Mets pitchers especially. I was playing Strat and having brats at one of my fellow owners' houses, and he didn't have MLB Extra Innings, so I was out of luck. Reyes led off the game with another triple, and scored on a grounder by Wright that was ruled a hit and error after Tulowitzki threw it away. The Mets then scored all the runs they would need on a two-run homer by Carlos Beltran in the third. Mike Pelfrey is rounding into shape as a decent alternative to El Duque (and certainly one with a better future). He went five and two-thirds of shutout ball and was removed due to a high pitch count and a couple of walks in the 6th. Joe Smith finished the inning and then gave up the only Rockies run in the 7th, a Yorvit Torrealba dinger. The usual pair of Duaner Sanchez and Billy Wagner sewed up the 3-1 win.

The Mets return to Shea to play the woeful Seattle Mariners, owners of the worst record in baseball. Had it been two weeks ago, the stage would have been set for some crushing Metsian disappointment, but these look like games we should win. Johan faces King Felix tonight (I'll drag myself to the Man Cave for that one, come hell or hardwood flooring), and after that we get some guy named R.A. Dickey with an ERA north of five and then the thoroughly underachieving Erik Bedard on Wednesday. The Manuel magic will be put to the real test in the subsequent games, with four against the Yanks, four against the Cards, and four more against the Phillies. After these 15 games, we'll see what we have. Or we'll be actually looking forward to seeing the office get redecorated.