TEAM EVALUATIONS: HIGHLANDERS

Team: Highlanders

Conference: Liberty

Division: North

2009 Record: 103-59, 1st Place

Typical Lineup:

1B Kevin Youkilis

2B Skip Schumaker/Nick Punto

SS Erick Aybar/Nick Punto

3B Chipper Jones/Mark DeRosa

LF Lastings Milledge/Skip Schumaker

CF Marlon Byrd

RF Jeff Francoeur

C Jason Kendall/Ryan Hanigan

DH Hideki Matsui/Kyle Blanks

Youk, Chipper, Byrd, Aybar, and Matsui are a solid base, but there are some real sinkholes in there with Kendall, Milledge, Punto and Francoeur.  It'll be difficult to keep all of those guys out of the lineup because of usage issues, which will severely detract from run production.

Starting Rotation:

Jered Weaver

Jeff Niemann

Doug Davis

Ricky Romero

Jose Contreras/Chad Gaudin

Rick VandenHurk/Dustin Nippert

Weaver is a borderline ace, and Niemann will be one soon, but the rest of the rotation is below average and will struggle mightily.  The less Contreras pitches, the better, and there are some slightly better options.

Bullpen:

Kris Medlen

Brandon Morrow

Chad Gaudin

Dustin Nippert

Really thin and terrible.  No lead is safe with this pen.

Closer:

Ramon Troncoso

Probably the league's worst.

Minors:

Ike Davis

Kyle Drabek

Jeremy Hellickson

Ryan Kalish

Angel Salome

Davis should be a viable option at 1B when Chipper retires and Youk moves to 3B.  Drabek is on the fast track to the top of the Blue Jays rotation. and Hellickson will get his shot with the Rays this year.  Kalish is a high-OBP guy that fits in well with the Red Sox prototype.  Salome dropped behind Jonathan Lucroy in the Brewers catching depth chart, but still has some promise.  The two excellent pitching prospects are especially sorely needed.

The Highlanders find themselves in a very deep hole after last year's superb showing.  I'm projecting them to take the biggest fall, and to actually reverse their win and loss totals from last year.  That may be overly harsh, but there are some really good teams in their conference, and their overall OPS and WHIP do not portend much success this year.

Predicted Record: 59-103

WRIGHT HERE ALMOST RIGHT NOW

David Wright went deep off Marlins ace Josh Johnson, and Aaron Hill left the yard against Phillies ace Roy Halladay.  Bring on Johan Santana, Jair Jurrjens and whoever the "ace" of the Nats might be, we'll take on the whole NL East!  Juan Uribe added his third spring homer to the fiesta (Andres Torres hit yet another double in that game).  Russell "Turtle" Martin emerged from his shell and got back into real spring baseball, going 0-for-2.  Absolutely none of my pitchers appeared yesterday.

Only three more days until it counts!  The Yankees and Red Sox have a Sunday night game, and thankfully, it's not in Japan or some other ridiculous place.  Ramon S. Ramirez will be the only eligible Gunslinger, assuming he goes north.  The two highest payrolls in the game, and I have a total of one guy, a non-closer reliever, from either team.  Maybe that's where I've failed.  Well, that's one of the ways I've failed, for sure.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: QUAKES

Team: Quakes

Conference: Patriot

Division: West

2009 Record: 67-95, 3rd Place

Typical Lineup:

1B Daniel Murphy

2B Macier Izturis/Delwyn Young

SS Yunel Escobar

3B Aramis Ramirez/Josh Fields

LF Raul Ibanez

CF Willy Taveras/Scott Podsednick

RF Garrett Anderson

C Ramon Hernandez/Nick Hundley/Chris Coste

DH Magglio Ordonez/Mike Jacobs/Jim Thome

That's a really poor lineup, especially with Taveras, Podsednick and Anderson putting the "out" in outfield.  Escobar, Ibanez and Ramirez in a limited role will be helpful, but the rest are below par.

Starting Rotation:

Ted Lilly

Justin Verlander

Ryan Dempster

A.J. Burnett

Hiroki Kuroda/Clayton Richard

Not bad at all.  In fact, quite good.  Lilly, Dempster, and Verlander are a quality trio, and the rest will fill in with average to above-average innings.

Bullpen:

Chad Durbin

Mark Lowe

Edward Mujica

Joe Smith

John Rauch

Not anything special, but not a mess by any means.  They should keep the Quakes in the game most of the time.

Closer:

LaTroy Hawkins

Hawkins had a great year last year, but didn't actually close a lot of games for the Astros, so that will limit his effectiveness in this role in Strat.  He should be decent at worst, though.

Minors:

None

Not a good sign.  Ian Desmond will be a rookie at SS this year for the Nationals, but this is one position the Quakes don't really need, as young and talented as Escobar is.

It will be a long, tough year for the Quakes as they navigate the same division as the Chuggers and Mammoths.  With that starting pitching, I expect they will do decently outside the division, but may lose 90% of their games against the beasts of the Patriot West with such a weak lineup.

Predicted Record: 77-85

START THE SEASON ALREADY!

It was a pretty auspicious day in Gunslingers-land.  First, Miguel Cabrera slugged a couple of homers off a guy I almost drafted but didn't, Brad Bergeson.  Then Mark Buehrle and Ben Sheets faced each other and gave up only one run between them in 10 and one-third innings (although Sheets walked five).  Carlos Quentin homered in that game, and it wasn't off Sheets, amazingly.  Aaron Hill  also homered yesterday.  Finally, Jamie Moyer was named to the fifth starter spot for the Phillies, which means I will have six active starting pitchers as of Opening Day (with Buehrle and Kevin Millwood actually starting on Opening Day).  Let's get this party started!  Until the inevitable collapse, anyway.

I've determined that I will be going way over in assigning win totals in my team evaluations, and I went back and re-figured it.  I didn't bother to update the posts, because if anybody from the league reads them, I usually overestimated the wins and made the team look better than they probably are. I left myself with about 65 wins even after I re-figured everything, which might be depressingly accurate.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: SAWYERS

Team: Sawyers

Conference: Liberty

Division: Northeast

2009 Record: 89-73, 2nd Place

Typical Lineup:

1B Justin Morneau

2B Brian Roberts

SS Troy Tulowitzki

3B Andy LaRoche

LF Jason Bay

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

RF Ben Zobrist

C Geovany Soto/Kelly Shoppach/Gregg Zaun

DH Ryan Howard/Denard Span/Ryan Church

Truly awesome.  All-Stars everywhere, with Morneau, Tulowitzki, Howard, Bay, and the versatile Zobrist.  The defense is equally outstanding, with hardly a weak link anywhere.  About the only criticism is 3B, where LaRoche is a bit of an out machine, although he does provides good defense.  Also, Soto had an off year, and his backups aren't that great either.

Starting Rotation:

Javier Vazquez

Dan Haren

Jon Lester

Gavin Floyd

Jorge De La Rosa

The top three are about as good as any top three in our league, and Floyd and De La Rosa are no worse than average.  The Sawyers will have a lot of games wrapped up after seven innings with this offense and this staff.

Bullpen:

Rafael Betancourt

Carlos Marmol

Peter Moylan

Eric O'Flaherty

Huston Street

Marmol and Moylan are only maybe a little better than average, but O'Flaherty, Betancourt, and either Street or Papelbon for the 8th inning should be sufficient to get the Sawyers to the closer.

Closer:

Jonathan Papelbon

One of the game's best.  Street could just as easily do the honors, which should help with some playoff matchups.

Minors:

Jake Arrieta

Lonnie Chisenhall

Hank Conger

Casey Kelly

Dustin McGowan

Mike Stanton

The Sawyers have methodically built a powerhouse team since joining the league, improving every year, and this crop of minor leaguers shows no slowdown to that process.  Stanton will be a fixture in the outfield for years, and Arrieta, Kelly, and McGowan should contribute solid innings in the near future.  Conger is close to being ready to bolster the catching position, and Chisenhall will hope to supplant LaRoche at 3B soon.

This club is poised to take it up one more notch and capture the Liberty Northeast crown from a declining Coruscant team.  I don't see any superior teams in their way from the rest of the conference, so look for them to meet the survivor of the Mammoths/Chuggers series in the USSP World Series.  They should compete well there, but fall a bit short.

Predicted Record: 99-63

TROUT MAKES AN OUT

Jonathan Sanchez continued his bipolar act, swinging to the good side with an 11 K outing against the Brewers in six innings.  The next opponent gets bad Jonathan, which will be a regular season game, if my luck holds up.

Alexi Ramirez had three singles and a stolen base.  Mike Trout made his first out of the spring, but also got a single, which lowered his BA to .667.  I'm not sure what he's still doing in the major league camp.  He should be starting the season in high A or AA, and he's not moving Torii Hunter out of CF any time soon.  I just found out that Trout is from Millville, NJ.  I played an over 30-league game in Millville once.  I probably played on the same field he played at.

Less than a week to real baseball!

TEAM EVALUATIONS: FISHFLIES

Team: Fishflies

Conference: Patriot

Division: Central

2009 Record: 91-71, 2nd Place

Typical Lineup:

1B Joey Votto/Aubrey Huff

2B Ian Kinsler

SS Elvis Andrus/Reid Brignac

3B Alex Rodriguez/Michael Young

LF Johnny Damon

CF Randy Winn

RF David Murphy/Josh Anderson

C Kurt Suzuki/Dioner Navarro

DH Aubrey Huff/Michael Young/Alex Rodriguez

Votto, Kinsler, A-Rod and Young are spectacular, but the outfield is mediocre at best, and the fewer AB to Dioner Navarro, the better.  Defensively, it looks pretty good, except in LF with Damon.  

Starting Rotation:

Josh Johnson

John Danks

Joe Blanton

Ricky Nolasco

Jake Peavy/Mark Rzepczynski

Wade Davis/John Niese/Chris Young

It's better than all the names makes it look, although having nine guys who can start is something to be envious of.  Johnson is an ace and Danks is better than average.  Blanton and Nolasco are effective innings munchers, and the combinations of Peavy and Rzepczynski and the Davis/Niese/Young will get people out.

Bullpen:

Craig Breslow

Tim Byrdak

Darren O'Day

Jose Valverde

Sean White

Great versatility with O'Day coming sidearm from the right side and Byrdak missing a lot of lefty bats, plus Breslow and White getting righties out and Valverde also able to close.  This is a major strength.

Closer:

Francisco Cordero

Better than average and should be in a lot of games.

Minors:

Jason Heyward

Will Myers

Michael Taylor

Jaff Decker

Heyward is ready now and will move right into the Fishflies weak RF spot and put up big numbers.  Taylor, Myers, and Decker are longer-range prospects that can all play.  The lack of pitching prospects is probably a conscious strategy, and shouldn't be a problem in the short term.

The nine starters, the bullpen, and the stars in the infield will carry the Fishflies to a lot of wins.  I expect them to take the division, and then bow out gracefully to the Chuggers in round one of the playoffs.

Expected Record: 96-66

SPRING STATS, PART IV

This will probably we the final Spring Stats, since next Monday is Opening Day, and I won't care any more.  Then again, maybe I will.  We'll leave that open.

OFFENSE

The good: The team OPS of .839 is encouraging.  The 83 SO/64 BB ratio is excellent.  Miguel Cabrera, Aaron Hill and Hunter Pence are raking.  Andres Torres will never supplant Aaron Rowand in CF for the Giants, but it isn't because of his bat.  David Wright has picked it up.

The bad:  Bobby Abreu and Adrian Gonzalez look terrible.  Bobby never starts strong, but I'm hoping Gonzalez isn't in "Operation Shutdown" until San Diego finally trades him.  I can't really afford that.  Russell Martin may struggle until he gets a few swings in, which, given his poor start last year, isn't helpful.

PITCHING

The good:  Mark Buehrle, Kenshin Kawakami and Jamie Moyer have been outstanding.  Luke Gregerson, Nick Masset, and Darren Oliver are right where they need to be.  He's not shown here, but Francsico Rodriguez has also been sharp.  I like the 117 SO/48 BB ratio.

The bad: The team ERA of 5.05 and team WHIP of 1.52 are awful, but Spring Training is usually a hitter's paradise.  Kevin Millwood and  Ben Sheets might make this a brutally long season for me.  Andrew Miller was sent down, and Jose Mijares and Ramon S. Ramirez got shelled regularly.  Jonathan Sanchez will drive me crazy again this year, it appears.

I'll do another team evaluation later.