I started this at 1000 days, and we're down to 305. Talk about the audacity of hope! We're also on the verge of some votin', or caucusin' ("caucusin' by caucasians" - sounds like a Daily Show chiron) as it were, so it's again time to have a look at the would-be White House occupants:
REPUBLICANS
Mike Huckabee - As predicted here (you'll see that a lot - I like to gloat), the Huckster has become the default choice of the GOP base. He's ahead by a corn husk in Iowa and nationally, and moving up everywhere else. He's showing unmistakeable signs of cracking under the pressure, though. He's gotten a little petty and mean-spirited at times, and from what I've read, his staff doesn't seem to know what they are doing, which has reflected badly on him in the press. His lack of funds will be exposed after Iowa and New Hampshire. He can't possibly compete with Romney and Rudy for TV time in the Super Tuesday states. I don't think he can win by delegate count alone. It may actually come down to Minneapolis in September. Former Newt Gingrich staffer Tony Blankley has said publicly on two occasions that he is booking extra hotel rooms for the convention to facilitate deal-making. As the only faith-based candidate, Huck will get more than his due should it come down to that.
Rudy Giuliani - His fall in the polls has been precipitous, as predicted here. The scandal that got him good was the revelation that he had taxpayers pay for his extra-marital trysts with Judith Nathan. Joe Biden's line about "noun-verb-9/11" really nailed him, too. He's still got plenty of oil money, and he's cruising in New York, California, and Florida. At the very least he'll be in the mix on Super Tuesday.
Mitt Romney - The Well-Coiffed Latter-Day Saint is spending furiously to ensure a victory in Iowa, and he has a thin lead in New Hampshire. Like Rudy, he'll be around come February 5th with an unprecedented ad blitz covering all 22 states and all Democrats abroad. Knowing him, he'll have his message translated into 100 different languages and beamed to every TV station in the developed world. The man wants to win, which is half the battle, I guess.
John McCain - Mac is banking on a strong third in Iowa, where he rarely appeared, and a second win in New Hampshire to propel him ahead of Rudy and Romney as the moderate alternative to Huck. I don't see how anybody can make their living in the GOP as the moderate anything. Worst-case is that he finshes fourth in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and all of the money runs out. This seems more likely.
Fred Thompson - Freddie is barely hanging on as a major candidate. The only way his campaign resurrects is with a win in South Carolina, where he is currently running third. Don't get too comfortable in that D.A.'s chair, Sam Waterston.
The Field - Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter. Paul is mysteriously raising big cash on the Internet, but he's not a Republican in anything other than name, and will not get the nomination. Hunter needs to crawl back under his rock and go away.
DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton - She still leads by a huge margin nationally and in New York, Florida, and California, and I still think she will be the nominee, but the whole inevitability thing has nearly vanished. It started with that press release about all the boys ganging up on her in the debates. What a dumb mistake that was by her campaign. Bill has pretty much taken over after that, and things have smoothed out, but Iowa may very easily go to Edwards or Obama, and New Hampshire is also very close. I doubt either of these results will have a bearing on the big three states or the Super Tuesday states, but once she starts ending up second or third, it could become a habit. It seems like a lot of Dems are trying to think of a reason not to vote for her.
Barack Obama - Well, I predicted that the party had given up on him as lacking experience, but he's held things together well in Iowa, is moving up nationally, and has emerged as the clear alternative to the Pantsuit. He's got to do a lot better in the big three states, though. If he could win California, it could turn the whole thing around, but so far, there are no signs of that happening. A win in South Carolina could help, and he is improving rapidly there. I'd say he has maybe a 25% chance of breaking through, which is a lot better than a few months ago.
John Edwards - He will follow up his win or second in Iowa with some really ugly results in New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina, and then he'll be done, with a Veep spot a possibility. Pretty much the same as last time.
The Field - Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich. Iowa will be their last chance to kiss babies for a while. It's a three-person race now, and will be a two-person race by Super Tuesday.
INDEPENDENTS
Michael Bloomberg - Arianna Huffington says he's going to run, and he certainly has the money. At this point, his chances are nil, but Perot got 20% of the vote running against a sitting president, and he was balls-out insane.