We're well under 600 days now until we choose a replacement for Doody Head. The race has become unprecendented in terms of the money raised to this point, as NPR so ably demonstrated last week through the use of the BeeGees song, "Stayin' Alive". Let's see where we stand.
REPUBLICANS
1. Rudy Giuliani - Rudy has firmly established himself as the front runner, a new development since the last time we checked in. His star has dropped a bit recently on revelations that his current wife suddenly "remembered" she's been previously married two times, and not the one she had told Giuliani. In addition, Giuliani's BFF, Bernie Kerik, is about to be indicted for various mob-related influence peddling shenanigans that occurred during and after Rudy's mayoral tenure. This stuff will continue to trickle in and eventually capsize his candidacy, but it ought to be fun while it lasts. I never did get to shake his hand at the NPRA convention. I'm sure he was disappointed.
2. John McCain - Second, but barely. McCain is steadfastly flogging the war effort, recently surfacing in Baghdad to claim that the surge needs just a little more time, and comically asserting that Baghdad is as safe as any American city, while strolling a market wearing a flak jacket and being escorted by attack helicopters and 100 soldiers. It's hard to tell if he really believes that any more, or if he's just signed on with the Rovian machine and is courting the hard-core right wing. If he believes it, well, I hope he's right, because Bush isn't pulling out. If he doesn't believe it, he's doomed.
3. Mitt Romney - The Mormon Thing is still a big problem, even as McCain and Giuliani are starting to decline in favorability. My take is, hey, he may wear funny underwear, but he isn't nigh on 70 and he doesn't wear WOMEN'S underwear. He's got the cash, so it's only a matter of figuring out a way to fend off the other Faith-Based guys. It's not clear that he can manage that, but again, he's got cash.
4. Newt Gingrich - I'm not sure if his "confession" to James Dobson helped or hurt. It got him some air time, which always helps, but the hypocrisy inherent in his statement was remarkably breathtaking, even for a Republican. He's making a nomination-winning move by courting Dobson. It'll take a lot more than that, though, and I don't know if Newtie has it in him.
5. Fred Thomspon - With a bullet. I'm not going to bother with the Wikipedia treatment on 'Ol Fred. You know him, you love him. He's a man's man, aside from the fact he's an actor. He isn't officially in yet, but his polling numbers have to be encouraging. Gallup even has him in third. He's not a Reagan conservative, depsite his acting pedigree, so I'm doubtful his candidacy will gain much traction. I get the feeling he'll say something stupid really soon, and be renegotiating his "Law & Order" contract immediately afterward.
6. Sam Brownback - I haven't heard a peep out of Sam since he announced. He'll always be the Dobson-type's fair-haired boy, but he's too obscure for the rest of the country, and from what I've seen, he has too much integrity to play the Rove game. He's kind of the Pro-Life version of Russ Feingold, which would be disastrous for his handlers.
7. Tom Tancredo - Again, unless his one issue becomes THE issue, he's not viable.
8. Tommy Thompson - He's like Fred, only without the charisma.
9. Mike Huckabee - He's the dark horse. He's not as extreme and strange as Brownback, and he's also not busy being a Senator like Sam is. I could easily see a scenario where Rudy, McCain, Newt, and Romney are all systematically disqualified by the GOP kingmakers, and Huck is the man left standing. His big problem is that Hillary would probably mop the floor with him in a very nasty, old-time Arkansas race, and Obama is too big of a personality in comparison.
10. The Rest - Chuck Hagel, Ron Paul, Jim Gilmore, George Pataki, Duncan Hunter. Of the pari-mutuel field, Hagel has the best breakout capability in terms of media coverage due to his anti-war stance, and Hunter is probably best-loved by the right.
DEMOCRATS
1. Hillary Clinton - Bill and Hill have been slashing and burning with a vengeance on the fundraising circuit, questioning the patriotism, brains, and sanity of any and every Democrat who doesn't back them. I guess this worked for Bill, but what Hill has to remember is that there won't be a Ross Perot to save her skin come next November. She'll have to get 270 electoral votes the hard way, and pissing off a big swath of her potential voters isn't going to help.
2. Barack Obama - From what I've been reading lately, Barry is going to run on a "Leadership" strategy, light on the specifics. It worked for Bush, but he was a white guy that most people knew and who had a rabid following among a very high turnout group, white evangelicals. Obama is a black guy, who people are still getting to know, and who seems to have a rabid following only among the relatively small, mostly non-voting media. Even so, I think this may actually work, if it turns out he's a great natural leader. If not, he'll be sucking wind down there with Kucinich.
3. John Edwards - After all the pundit foofaraw surrounding his wife Elizabeth's announcement of serious health problems, Edwards appeared to emerge more or less unscathed and even re-energized. It seems like more people applauded their courage and pluck than castigated Edwards for being an unfeeling Presidential Candidate robot. That being said, he's got problems. Even if Elizabeth's cancer remains relatively stable, having to deal with it will take the steam out of his traveling and fundraising effort against two already formidable opponents. It might have worked if he had anything to say on the Iraq war other than "Whoops, I blew that one!"
4. Al Gore - He hasn't started, but the train hasn't departed (to paraphrase Garry Templeton). And by train, I mean MagLev. In the past two months, Gore has won an Oscar and seen his views on global warming be accepted into the mainstream at a precipitous, almost global-warming-like rate. It also looks like he's on the melting glacier diet, having shed several pounds since the red carpet. I think he will run, and I think he'd win if the election were held in 2007. Unfortunately for him, he may have peaked too early. We'll have another cold winter in the Northeast, and everybody will start laughing at him again just as the primaries start. We probably deserve what comes after that.
5. The Rest - Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Christopher Dodd, Dennis Kucinich. Biden will make some noise, and Richardson will rally the Hispanic vote somewhat, but these guys are strictly Cabinet material.