THE SEASONAL RAIN STATE

It was a complete washout over in the Grapefruit League on Friday, which is probably just as well.  It's not like anybody on my team there is on a tear.  A good day of rest is most likely the best possible outcome.  Go, Gunslingers!

In the Cactus League, Carlos Quentin had another 2-hit game, and Andres Torres smacked a pair of doubles.  Other than that, it was zeroes across the board, and none of my pitchers appeared.  I'm dreading Monday's statistical review.

STILL MORE THAN I WOULD PAY

Not even if YOU paid ME, Ann.  Not even then.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: ESOX

Team: Esox

Conference: Patriot

Division: West

2009 Record: 37-125, 5th place

Typical lineup:

1B Chris Davis

2B Martin Prado

SS Luis Valbuena/Alcides Escobar

3B Brandon Inge/Ian Stewart/Mark Teahen

LF Mark Teahen/Carlos Gonzalez

CF David Dejesus

RF Michael Brantley/Fernando Martinez/Mark Teahen

DH Mark Teahen/Ian Stewart/Matt LaPorta/Brandon Inge

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia/John Baker

Yikes.  This lineup is disjointed and brutally awful, but there is a lot to build on here.  Davis should improve given his 2009 second half; LaPorta, Salty, Escobar, Stewart, and possibly Gonzalez are future all-stars; Prado had a terrific year offensively for a 2B; and Dejesus should be steady for several more years. This year, though, it's bad - better than the 37-win team of 2009, but still bad.

Starting Rotation:

Johnny Cueto

Brett Anderson

Scott Kazmir

Dallas Braden

Anibal Sanchez

Brian Tallet/Chris Tillman/Glen Perkins/Todd Wellemeyer

Cueto is a future ace, but not there yet.  The rest are league-average or worse, but at least there are a lot of guys to choose from, and maybe one of those 6th starters will emerge as worthwhile, most likely Tillman.  Kazmir could bounce back to his prospect level, and Braden looks like a very good find.

Bullpen:

Daniel Bard

Tony Pena

Brian Tallet

Todd Wellemeyer

More nightmare fuel here, although Bard has a ton of raw talent and great K/IP numbers.

Closer:

Neftali Feliz

Feliz is a great pitcher who should be terrorizing Major League hitters for the next decade or two.  He's wasted here in 2010 on a team that will have few leads to close.

Minors:

Tim Alderson

Yonder Alonso

Gerrit Cole

Wilmer Flores

Tanner Scheppers

Jose Tabata

Donavan Tate

Brett Wallace

Ryan Westmoreland

The cupboard is bursting here, with Tabata, Wallace, Tate, Westmoreland, and Alonso all poised to be massive OPS monsters, and Alderson and Scheppers as hard-throwing righties at the top of the rotation.  Even Wilmer Flores might help soon if Jose Reyes continues to have health problems and/or the Mets move him to 2B.  I don't know much about Cole, but he looks like a good bet to come out of UCLA as a high first round pick.

The Esox will be much better in 2010 than in 2009, but they will struggle to avoid 100 losses.  I see the blueprint of a hugely successful team in there, especially in the minor league offense, but a couple more years of seasoning are required.

Predicted Record: 62-100

THAT'S MY SECOND ROUND PICK RIGHT THERE!

It was another miserable afternoon in the Grapefruit League for Kevin Millwood yesterday.  The Oriole righthander gave up five earned runs on nine hits in two and two-thirds innings, including a home run to Michael Cuddyer in an 8-3 thrashing by the Twins.  His Spring Training ERA is now a healthy 29.70.  He's working things out, that's it!  Like how to duck line drives at his head.

Elsewhere, the relievers had pretty decent days, aside from Luke Gregerson, who gave up a run in only two-thirds of an inning.  Nick Masset, Alex White and Aaron Crow all had scoreless frames.  Maybe Crow will go north with the Royals as a long man/swing starter.  I haven't heard anything, and given his lack of pro experience, I would doubt it.  He'll probably start in AA with an eye toward getting him with the big club before August.  It's not like the Royals are going anywhere.

Hey, somebody had a multiple-hit day!  Carlos Quentin doubled and singled in a 5-5 tie with Cleveland.  Man, when that's the best offensive news in three days, things are not looking well.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: MILLERS

Team: Millers

Conference: Patriot

Division: Central

2009 Record: 85-77, 4th place (as Stars)

Typical lineup:

1B Kendry Morales

2B Adam Kennedy

SS Orlando Cabrera

3B Mike Lowell

LF Curtis Granderson

CF Torii Hunter

RF Jermaine Dye/Nate McLouth

C Ryan Doumit/Ronny Paulino/Yorvit Torrealba

DH David Ortiz/Jermain Dye

This is a pretty balanced lineup with good depth in the outfield.  The team OPS is amazingly similar to the Derelicts, and even a bit lower.  The defense looks very strong across the board, except maybe behind the plate.  Torrealba is the only good defender of the three, and he won't get the bulk of the playing time.

Starting Rotation:

Roy Halladay

Bronson Arroyo

Carlos Zambrano

Nick Blackburn

Tommie Hanson/Brad Bergesen

A very strong top half, led by perennial All-Star Halladay, and a bottom half that will still get people out.  Hanson may become the #2 guy as soon as next year.

Bullpen:

Tyler Clippard

Todd Coffey

Pedro Feliciano

Frank Francisco

Angel Guzman

Joe Thatcher

Closer:

Rafael Soriano

The pen is an embarrassment of riches.  It will be very difficult to come back against these guys.  Soriano might have some homer issues, but he's generally lights out.

Minors:

Billy Wagner

J.R. Towles

The Millers are built to contend now.

Pitching will be the key to the Millers success this year, and it should be a pretty good year.  Halladay will probably win 20, with Soriano saving at least 30 behind a strong set-up staff.  The offense is not championship caliber, though, and even though the Millers may vie for a playoff spot, I can't see them going far.

Predicted Record: 90-72

CLEAN SANCHEZ

Jonathan Sanchez that is.  He pitched three very tidy innings against the Cubs, striking out five and allowing no earned runs.  Not faring as well was comeback kid Ben Sheets, who was tagged for five earned runs on five hits in two and two-thirds innings versus the White Sox.  Nobody else did much of anything, except for Ramon S. Ramirez, as he is being called because there is a Ramon A. Ramirez also on the Red Sox.  S. struck out two in a scoreless inning of relief in Fort Myers against the Rays.

I'll do another team profile this afternoon.  Man, I hope none of these guys Googles their team name.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: DERELICTS

Team: Derelicts

Conference: Liberty

Division: Northeast

2009 Record: 75-87, 3rd place

Typical lineup:

1B Mark Teixeira

2B Freddy Sanchez

SS J.J. Hardy

3B Evan Longoria

LF Will Venable

CF Grady Sizemore

RF Delmon Young

C Matt Wieters

DH Ryan Braun/Travis Snider/Ronny Cedeno

The offense looks pretty spotty.  They added Mark Teixeira with the first pick in the 2010 draft after the Chuggers overused him last year, which will help tremendously, but overall, they have a lot of missing pieces.  They don't really have a full-time DH, and will have to rotate guys in and out to make it through the season.  This will expose an already porous outfield defense, since Braun and Young are not plus defenders.  The infield defense is very good, though.  Wieters is only starting what should be a great career, but isn't yet.  Sizemore had an off year offensively and should be a big negative over last year. Longoria is a fantastic all-around player.

Starting Rotation:

Matt Cain
Max Scherzer
Scott Feldman
Mike Pelfrey
Homer Bailey

This is a very weak area for the Derelicts.  Only Cain is a true ace, while the others are league-average innings munchers at best.  The bottom two of this rotation could lose 15-20 games each.

Bullpen:

Manny Delcarmen
Francisco Liriano
Chris Perez
Ryan Perry

Also pretty poor.  Any leads the starters give to these guys will be tenuous.

Closer:

Mike Gonzalez

Gonzalez is a strong closer, but he should be vastly underused because of his pyromaniacal setup men.

Minors
Tim Beckham

Jeff Clement
Eric Hosmer
Shaun Marcum

Tyler Matzek

Jennry Mejia

Mike Moustakas

Jarrod Parker

Tony Sanchez

Jacob Turner

This is an excellent area for the Derelicts, and bodes well for their future.  Matzek and Turner look like studs, and Beckham, Hosmer, Mejia, Moustakas, and Sanchez all have good upside.  Marcum is coming off a 2009 lost to Tommy John surgery and will attempt to regain his form.  Only Parker (out for 2010 after Tommy John) and Clement look like they might not reach their potential, but that could be premature.

The Derelicts are pretty much where the Gunslingers currently sit, a weak team with some promise.  The improved offense that Teixeira will bring will be overshadowed by the incendiary pitching staff.  Anything other than a long, unsuccessful season would be a testament to great managing.

2010 Predicted Record: 70-92.

KENSHIN, WATCH ROY, SEE HOW IT'S DONE

Kenshin Kawakami was less than stellar against the Phillies and Roy Halladay, giving up a two-run homer to Jayson Werth and three other hits in three innings.  Halladay, for his part, struck out five in three scoreless innings.  This is pretty much a microcosm of how I expect things to go this year.  We might see this matchup more than once during the season, in fact, with similar results.  I need better pitching, fast.

So, naturally, I'm going to draft a position player with my last pick!  Well, maybe not.  Chris Withrow of the Dodgers is still available.  He had some kind of elbow problem and missed almost all of 2008, then came back had good peripheral numbers in A and AA in 2009.  He's the highest guy left in the Basball Prospectus top 101 prospects.  Ok, I talked myself into it.  Withrow it is.  Another owner immediately e-mailed me that I had taken his pick.

SPRING STATS

As promised, here are the first week of Spring Training stats for the Gunslingers.  I should really be despairing more for my pitching than my hitting.

It was nice to see Grant Green get an AB.  I think they sent him back to minor league camp, though.  Aaron Hill is a walk machine this spring so far - more walks than AB.  The peripheral stats for the pitchers actually look pretty good - almost 3:1 K/BB ratio and well over 1.0 K/IP ratio.  Still, definitely too many HR's allowed; the wind must be blowing pretty good this year.

MASSET TWO SHOTS

No draft picks again today. I make my last pick tomorrow, unless someone convinces me otherwise.

Nick Masset got pounded for three earned runs in one inning against the heretofore powerless Royals, including homers by Kila Ka'aihue and Josh Fields.  I was probably the only one paying attention to that, since this game marked the spring debut of Cuban uber-prospect Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman looked good, anyway.

Strikeouts continue to be rung up by Brian Matusz, who collected six K's in two and two-thirds shaky innings against the Twins.  Jose Mijares had another scoreless inning in that game in Sarasota.

I'm starting to get concerned about the collective lack of hitting by the entire Gunslinger roster this spring.  I'd say each of the last three to seven days, I've seen a ton of goose eggs in the hits column.  Yesterday it was Hunter Pence, Carlos Quentin, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and Alexei Ramirez all taking the collar.  I'll have to publish a Spring statistical roundup soon.

Once the draft is complete, I'll start publishing a team-by-team analysis of the competition.  Quick take-away: they are almost all better than me.

IT'S OK, IT'S A WET COLD

Rain and temperatures in the 60's washed out most of the Cactus League games yesterday.  What wussies.  Frankly, I think they were just trying to get home early to set up for their Oscar parties.  I'm sure Ozzie Guillen was dying to Tweet about the red carpet.

Over in the Grapefruit Circuit, Andrew Miller failed his latest audition for the #5 starter spot with the Marlins, yielding three earned runs on three hits and two walks in two innings.  Other than that, nothing much of note.  Hunter Pence hit another triple.  He also got a good write-up as the Astros' budding spiritual leader in this morning's San Antonio Express-News.

I have traded away today's scheduled 8th round pick for a 7th in 2011.  I really should work harder at bundling those extra picks into something more useful next year.  I hate making trades, though, because they always seem to backfire.

YOUNG WHAT'S HIS NAME

In the draft this weekend, the Slingers added Miguel Sano, a 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic signed by the Minnesota Twins for $3.15 million, and Mike Trout, a 19-year-old CF in the Angels' system.  Sano, as our former commissioner JJ put it, is the ultimate "player to be named later", as he briefly decided to take his mother's maiden name, Jean, before going back to his father's surname, Sano.  Nobody really knows if he is actually 16-years-old, as well.  Eh, whatever.  It's only a 7th round pick.  He's supposed to be the best hitter to come out of the Caribbean in years.  Ought to be a fun ride.

Performance wise, Jose Mijares had a clean inning against the Red Sox, but Kevin Millwood didn't make it out of the first, getting pummeled by the Tigers.  I knew that pick was a mistake.  Aaron Crow fanned three in two scoreless innings, and Ben Sheets staggered through an inning and two-thirds with not too much damage and no reported pain.  Carlos Quentin dragged his aching foot around the bases twice after hitting a pair of homers off Carlos Silva of the (and soon not to be of the) Cubs.  Jonathan Sanchez had a typical line against the D-Backs - 2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO.  Keep infuriating and yet tantalizing us, Jonny.

The big injury news is the loss of Russell Martin for 4-6 weeks with a strained groin.  I wonder if I should draft a catcher late just in case.  Chris Snyder is supposed to be healthy, but he'll have to battle Miguel Montero for playing time again.  I hate drafting catchers.  They usually add so little value to the offense that once you get a decent defensive one, you just feel like hanging on to him forever.