TEAM EVALUATIONS: SKEETERS

Team: Skeeters

Conference: Liberty

Division: North

2009 Record: 56-106, 5th Place

Typical Lineup:

1B Hank Blalock

2B Felipe Lopez

SS Ryan Theriot

3B Gordon Beckham/Ty Wigginton/Jhonny Peralta

LF Colby Rasmus

CF Michael Bourn

RF Andrew McCutcheon/Cameron Maybin

C Miguel Olivo/Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird

DH Ty Wigginton/Jhonny Peralta

The lineup overall is pretty weak, especially at 1B with Blalock, SS with Theriot, and DH with Wigginton and Peralta.  Only one player, McCutcheon, cracks the .800 OPS barrier, and Lopez leads all hitters with a .361 OBP.  Nobody slugs .500.  This team will really struggle to score runs.  Run prevention looks better, with Bourn and McCutcheon in the outfield and Theriot and Lopez on the infield.  Olivo and Teagarden make a pretty good catching tandem.

Starting Rotation:

Clayton Kershaw

Jarrod Washburn

Andy Pettitte

Vicente Padilla

Scott Richmond/Clay Buchholz/Jordan Zimmerman

This is a young and very promising rotation, and could be dominant in a few years, but looks pretty average after Kershaw this season.  Still, it's a deep talent pool and won't be awful.

Bullpen:

Derek Holland

Franklin Morales

Bobby Parnell

Now this, this is awful.

Closer:

Leo Nunez

Pretty mediocre.

Minors:

Pedro Alvarez

Buster Posey

Lars Anderson

Josh Bell

Chris Carter (OAK)

Aroldis Chapman

Casey Crosby

Christian Friedrich

Dee Gordon

Aaron Hicks

Logan Morrison

Derek Norris

Help is on the way!  And plenty of it.  Chapman leads a bountiful crop of young talent, followed by Posey, Alvarez, Morrison, Carter, Crosby...ok, all of these guys are potentially very good.  I think the Skeeters are well on their way to contention after the 2010 draft, and they were getting better quickly before that.

It'll be another down year for the Skeeters, but huge improvement is very close.  It was probably a good idea to forgo building a decent bullpen this year, since the losses will come from the innings prior to the 7th with such a poor offense and lack of dominant starting pitching.  This lineup looks stacked in the years to come, and the bullpen can be filled in later.

Predicted Record:  65-97

THE USUAL CRAP

Let's see, Hunter Pence had a couple of hits, Nick Masset threw a scoreless inning, Juan Uribe hit a homer, and of course, Andrew Miller got hammered.  Pretty much another typical day in Florida and Arizona.  They sent Aaron Crow down to AA, despite the fact that he didn't allow a run in three outings.  Carlos Quentin made an appearance between injuries (he hasn't had his next one yet, but it's only a matter of time).  I'm ready for the season to start, and they have another two whole weeks of this nonsense.

I got the post-draft roster file, and I will be doing another team evaluation soon.  Yay, I guess.

WAN QUENTIN BLUES

Here we go again department:  Carlos Quentin was removed from a game against the Rockies due to an "undisclosed minor injury".  Next thing you know, he has Crohn's Disease or something.  This guy just wasn't meant to play competitive sports.

Justin Smoak, meanwhile, hit his first spring homer off Marcos Mateo of the Cubs.  Two minor leaguers involved in that AB, pretty much, unless Chris Davis goes into another tailspin.  Jose Mijares pitched a scoreless inning against the Orioles.  Kevin Millwood has been reduced to intrasquad games, and he's getting shelled in those, too.

We finally got a pick from our last draft straggler, but I haven't received the final post-draft roster yet.  If I get it, I'll do another team evaluation.

I'M GETTING TOO OLD FOR THIS SHEETS

Ok, this is getting bad.  Really bad.  Ben Sheets didn't get anybody out yesterday against the Reds, getting pulled after allowing eight hits and a walk and all nine baserunners to score (plus a guy who had reached on an error - Sheets' own error of course).  Curtis Dickerson finished off Bennie's day with a two-run homer.  That was positively Noah Lowry-like in it's disastrousness, and we know where Lowry is now, panhandling for any LOOGY job he can get.  And Sheets isn't even left-handed!  It may be time for Ben to take his $10 million guaranteed from the A's and go start a fine bedding business.  Sheets by Sheets.  Sounds like a winner to me.

In other calamities, Mark Buehrle got cuffed around by the freakin' Royals of all teams for nine hits and three runs in four innings.  Miguel Cabrera finally did something positive, smacking a homer off Mark, uh, I'm not even going to try to spell that name.  You know, that Polish guy from the Blue Jays.  That guy must be murder on the clubhouse people in Toronto.  Chris Snyder had a couple of hits, and managed to get thrown at his head by Cliff Lee, who was promptly ejected after the requisite bench-clearing ballet (this is only the Cactus League, after all).  Apparently, Lee took issue with Snyder running into him on a play at the plate in the first inning that Lee was backing up.  You go, Chris!  Disabling the other teams' guys is our only hope.

I'm waiting for the final post-draft roster spreadsheet to be issued to do any more team evaluations.  We still have one guy who hasn't made his 10th round pick.  I'll trade you Ben Sheets for it!

TEAM EVALUATIONS: SENATORS

Team: Senators

Conference: Liberty

Division: Northeast

2009 Record: 98-64, 1st place

Typical lineup:

1B Billy Butler

2B Robinson Cano

SS Jason Bartlett

3B Chone Figgins

LF Josh Willingham/Melky Cabrera

CF Carlos Beltran/Felix Pie

RF Ryan Ludwick/Elijah Dukes

DH Jack Cust

C Jadier Molina/Jose Morales

Nothing spectacular, but steady all the way across, with some great speed, defense, and enough power to do some damage.  Cano, Bartlett and Figgins are all standouts in the infield.  The outfield is not as strong, but there are a lot of spare parts (some not shown here) that will add to the overall effectiveness.  Molina is terrific all-around backstop.

Starting Rotation:

Cliff Lee

John Lannan

Jason Marquis

J.A. Happ

Aaron Harang

Chris Volstad

Lee is a true ace, and Happ looks great in a more limited role.  The rest are pretty much league-average, but not so horrible that you would mind running them out there.  This is the rotation of a borderline playoff team in our league.

Bullpen:

Shawn Camp

Bobby Howry

Guillermo Mota

Fu-Te Ni

Takaishi Saito

Claudio Vargas

Deep, solid and versatile, but not spectacular.  There won't be too much lead-surrendering here, but it could get hairy sometimes.

Closer:

Chad Qualls

Not the best.  They have an advantage in that Saito can help take up some slack.

Minors:

Ryan Tucker

Another team built for now.  The one prospect, Tucker, is a pitcher in the Marlins organization who spent much of 2009 on the DL.  He now says he has Raynaud's Disease, which causes numbness in his extremities in cold weather.  Not good for a guy who would have to play against the Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Rockies, Cards, Pirates, and Cubs in April, May, and September.  Let's hope he gets traded out West somewhere.

It looks to me like the Senators will not repeat or improve on their 98-win season of a year ago, and might be heading for a several-years-long decline without some major re-tooling.  They should contend for at least a wild-card this season, though.  They have enough pitching and the offense is just good enough to put them at that level, but not much further.  I can't see a long playoff run here.

Predicted Record: 89-73

SPRING STATS, PART II

Man, my pitching has gone to hell.  At least everybody is getting in games and staying relatively healthy, except for Old Man Moyer.  Millwood looks like he'll have a snapped neck watching balls fly out of Camden Yards this year.  I'm not sure what happened to Masset in that one outing.  He's not a gopher-ball guy.  Maybe he was working on a new pitch.  As for the offense, I'm a bit concerned about not one homer among those first five guys.  Other than that, not too terrible.  I like the 32 BB/34 SO ratio.  I wish we could keep that up all season.

NOTHING ELSE MATUSZ

Brian Matusz continues to look like a future ace of, well, the Gunslingers anyway, if not the Orioles.  That would be Kevin Millwood.  Ha!  Anyway, Matusz lasted five strong innings, giving up only three hits, no walks, one earned run, and striking out two Phillies.

Hunter Pence got the offense back on track, sort of, with a homer and a single.  In that same game, Kenshin Kawakami looked like he had a yen for some home sushi, giving up eight hits and three earned runs in what was supposed to be his first five-inning outing, but was shortened to three and two-thirds.

Over in Arizona, Jonathan Sanchez followed up his good outing in the last game with a clunker, walking five and giving up six earned runs to the Brewers in only two innings.

Bobby Abreu was scratched due to pain in "his side".  Not sure which side or what body part even, but I'm guessing it's a lat or pec or ab injury or something.  Maybe it was a bad enchilada, or whatever they eat in Venezuela (Wikipedia says the national dish is Pabellón criollo - looks pretty good).  Come on, Bobby, hold it together for at least one more year, buddy.  We need you.

Another statistical roundup and a team evaluation to follow.

MILLER CRIME

Andrew Miller continued his quest for a starting spot in the New Orleans Zephyrs rotation (maybe he likes Dixieland Jazz?) by giving up three runs in three innings of work.  The four walks didn't help much either.


David Wright and Andres Torres each homered on separate sides of the country.  Not at the same exact instant, though.  That would have been creepy.


Luke Gregerson went an inning and two-thirds of scoreless relief in a 10-inning loss to Oakland.


I'll do another team evaluation tomorrow.  We are done with the draft, except for a couple of stragglers who don't seem to want that last guy on their team.  I'll pick one of the perennial league championship contenders just to make myself even more depressed.

THE SEASONAL RAIN STATE

It was a complete washout over in the Grapefruit League on Friday, which is probably just as well.  It's not like anybody on my team there is on a tear.  A good day of rest is most likely the best possible outcome.  Go, Gunslingers!

In the Cactus League, Carlos Quentin had another 2-hit game, and Andres Torres smacked a pair of doubles.  Other than that, it was zeroes across the board, and none of my pitchers appeared.  I'm dreading Monday's statistical review.

STILL MORE THAN I WOULD PAY

Not even if YOU paid ME, Ann.  Not even then.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: ESOX

Team: Esox

Conference: Patriot

Division: West

2009 Record: 37-125, 5th place

Typical lineup:

1B Chris Davis

2B Martin Prado

SS Luis Valbuena/Alcides Escobar

3B Brandon Inge/Ian Stewart/Mark Teahen

LF Mark Teahen/Carlos Gonzalez

CF David Dejesus

RF Michael Brantley/Fernando Martinez/Mark Teahen

DH Mark Teahen/Ian Stewart/Matt LaPorta/Brandon Inge

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia/John Baker

Yikes.  This lineup is disjointed and brutally awful, but there is a lot to build on here.  Davis should improve given his 2009 second half; LaPorta, Salty, Escobar, Stewart, and possibly Gonzalez are future all-stars; Prado had a terrific year offensively for a 2B; and Dejesus should be steady for several more years. This year, though, it's bad - better than the 37-win team of 2009, but still bad.

Starting Rotation:

Johnny Cueto

Brett Anderson

Scott Kazmir

Dallas Braden

Anibal Sanchez

Brian Tallet/Chris Tillman/Glen Perkins/Todd Wellemeyer

Cueto is a future ace, but not there yet.  The rest are league-average or worse, but at least there are a lot of guys to choose from, and maybe one of those 6th starters will emerge as worthwhile, most likely Tillman.  Kazmir could bounce back to his prospect level, and Braden looks like a very good find.

Bullpen:

Daniel Bard

Tony Pena

Brian Tallet

Todd Wellemeyer

More nightmare fuel here, although Bard has a ton of raw talent and great K/IP numbers.

Closer:

Neftali Feliz

Feliz is a great pitcher who should be terrorizing Major League hitters for the next decade or two.  He's wasted here in 2010 on a team that will have few leads to close.

Minors:

Tim Alderson

Yonder Alonso

Gerrit Cole

Wilmer Flores

Tanner Scheppers

Jose Tabata

Donavan Tate

Brett Wallace

Ryan Westmoreland

The cupboard is bursting here, with Tabata, Wallace, Tate, Westmoreland, and Alonso all poised to be massive OPS monsters, and Alderson and Scheppers as hard-throwing righties at the top of the rotation.  Even Wilmer Flores might help soon if Jose Reyes continues to have health problems and/or the Mets move him to 2B.  I don't know much about Cole, but he looks like a good bet to come out of UCLA as a high first round pick.

The Esox will be much better in 2010 than in 2009, but they will struggle to avoid 100 losses.  I see the blueprint of a hugely successful team in there, especially in the minor league offense, but a couple more years of seasoning are required.

Predicted Record: 62-100

THAT'S MY SECOND ROUND PICK RIGHT THERE!

It was another miserable afternoon in the Grapefruit League for Kevin Millwood yesterday.  The Oriole righthander gave up five earned runs on nine hits in two and two-thirds innings, including a home run to Michael Cuddyer in an 8-3 thrashing by the Twins.  His Spring Training ERA is now a healthy 29.70.  He's working things out, that's it!  Like how to duck line drives at his head.

Elsewhere, the relievers had pretty decent days, aside from Luke Gregerson, who gave up a run in only two-thirds of an inning.  Nick Masset, Alex White and Aaron Crow all had scoreless frames.  Maybe Crow will go north with the Royals as a long man/swing starter.  I haven't heard anything, and given his lack of pro experience, I would doubt it.  He'll probably start in AA with an eye toward getting him with the big club before August.  It's not like the Royals are going anywhere.

Hey, somebody had a multiple-hit day!  Carlos Quentin doubled and singled in a 5-5 tie with Cleveland.  Man, when that's the best offensive news in three days, things are not looking well.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: MILLERS

Team: Millers

Conference: Patriot

Division: Central

2009 Record: 85-77, 4th place (as Stars)

Typical lineup:

1B Kendry Morales

2B Adam Kennedy

SS Orlando Cabrera

3B Mike Lowell

LF Curtis Granderson

CF Torii Hunter

RF Jermaine Dye/Nate McLouth

C Ryan Doumit/Ronny Paulino/Yorvit Torrealba

DH David Ortiz/Jermain Dye

This is a pretty balanced lineup with good depth in the outfield.  The team OPS is amazingly similar to the Derelicts, and even a bit lower.  The defense looks very strong across the board, except maybe behind the plate.  Torrealba is the only good defender of the three, and he won't get the bulk of the playing time.

Starting Rotation:

Roy Halladay

Bronson Arroyo

Carlos Zambrano

Nick Blackburn

Tommie Hanson/Brad Bergesen

A very strong top half, led by perennial All-Star Halladay, and a bottom half that will still get people out.  Hanson may become the #2 guy as soon as next year.

Bullpen:

Tyler Clippard

Todd Coffey

Pedro Feliciano

Frank Francisco

Angel Guzman

Joe Thatcher

Closer:

Rafael Soriano

The pen is an embarrassment of riches.  It will be very difficult to come back against these guys.  Soriano might have some homer issues, but he's generally lights out.

Minors:

Billy Wagner

J.R. Towles

The Millers are built to contend now.

Pitching will be the key to the Millers success this year, and it should be a pretty good year.  Halladay will probably win 20, with Soriano saving at least 30 behind a strong set-up staff.  The offense is not championship caliber, though, and even though the Millers may vie for a playoff spot, I can't see them going far.

Predicted Record: 90-72

CLEAN SANCHEZ

Jonathan Sanchez that is.  He pitched three very tidy innings against the Cubs, striking out five and allowing no earned runs.  Not faring as well was comeback kid Ben Sheets, who was tagged for five earned runs on five hits in two and two-thirds innings versus the White Sox.  Nobody else did much of anything, except for Ramon S. Ramirez, as he is being called because there is a Ramon A. Ramirez also on the Red Sox.  S. struck out two in a scoreless inning of relief in Fort Myers against the Rays.

I'll do another team profile this afternoon.  Man, I hope none of these guys Googles their team name.

TEAM EVALUATIONS: DERELICTS

Team: Derelicts

Conference: Liberty

Division: Northeast

2009 Record: 75-87, 3rd place

Typical lineup:

1B Mark Teixeira

2B Freddy Sanchez

SS J.J. Hardy

3B Evan Longoria

LF Will Venable

CF Grady Sizemore

RF Delmon Young

C Matt Wieters

DH Ryan Braun/Travis Snider/Ronny Cedeno

The offense looks pretty spotty.  They added Mark Teixeira with the first pick in the 2010 draft after the Chuggers overused him last year, which will help tremendously, but overall, they have a lot of missing pieces.  They don't really have a full-time DH, and will have to rotate guys in and out to make it through the season.  This will expose an already porous outfield defense, since Braun and Young are not plus defenders.  The infield defense is very good, though.  Wieters is only starting what should be a great career, but isn't yet.  Sizemore had an off year offensively and should be a big negative over last year. Longoria is a fantastic all-around player.

Starting Rotation:

Matt Cain
Max Scherzer
Scott Feldman
Mike Pelfrey
Homer Bailey

This is a very weak area for the Derelicts.  Only Cain is a true ace, while the others are league-average innings munchers at best.  The bottom two of this rotation could lose 15-20 games each.

Bullpen:

Manny Delcarmen
Francisco Liriano
Chris Perez
Ryan Perry

Also pretty poor.  Any leads the starters give to these guys will be tenuous.

Closer:

Mike Gonzalez

Gonzalez is a strong closer, but he should be vastly underused because of his pyromaniacal setup men.

Minors
Tim Beckham

Jeff Clement
Eric Hosmer
Shaun Marcum

Tyler Matzek

Jennry Mejia

Mike Moustakas

Jarrod Parker

Tony Sanchez

Jacob Turner

This is an excellent area for the Derelicts, and bodes well for their future.  Matzek and Turner look like studs, and Beckham, Hosmer, Mejia, Moustakas, and Sanchez all have good upside.  Marcum is coming off a 2009 lost to Tommy John surgery and will attempt to regain his form.  Only Parker (out for 2010 after Tommy John) and Clement look like they might not reach their potential, but that could be premature.

The Derelicts are pretty much where the Gunslingers currently sit, a weak team with some promise.  The improved offense that Teixeira will bring will be overshadowed by the incendiary pitching staff.  Anything other than a long, unsuccessful season would be a testament to great managing.

2010 Predicted Record: 70-92.

KENSHIN, WATCH ROY, SEE HOW IT'S DONE

Kenshin Kawakami was less than stellar against the Phillies and Roy Halladay, giving up a two-run homer to Jayson Werth and three other hits in three innings.  Halladay, for his part, struck out five in three scoreless innings.  This is pretty much a microcosm of how I expect things to go this year.  We might see this matchup more than once during the season, in fact, with similar results.  I need better pitching, fast.

So, naturally, I'm going to draft a position player with my last pick!  Well, maybe not.  Chris Withrow of the Dodgers is still available.  He had some kind of elbow problem and missed almost all of 2008, then came back had good peripheral numbers in A and AA in 2009.  He's the highest guy left in the Basball Prospectus top 101 prospects.  Ok, I talked myself into it.  Withrow it is.  Another owner immediately e-mailed me that I had taken his pick.

SPRING STATS

As promised, here are the first week of Spring Training stats for the Gunslingers.  I should really be despairing more for my pitching than my hitting.

It was nice to see Grant Green get an AB.  I think they sent him back to minor league camp, though.  Aaron Hill is a walk machine this spring so far - more walks than AB.  The peripheral stats for the pitchers actually look pretty good - almost 3:1 K/BB ratio and well over 1.0 K/IP ratio.  Still, definitely too many HR's allowed; the wind must be blowing pretty good this year.

MASSET TWO SHOTS

No draft picks again today. I make my last pick tomorrow, unless someone convinces me otherwise.

Nick Masset got pounded for three earned runs in one inning against the heretofore powerless Royals, including homers by Kila Ka'aihue and Josh Fields.  I was probably the only one paying attention to that, since this game marked the spring debut of Cuban uber-prospect Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman looked good, anyway.

Strikeouts continue to be rung up by Brian Matusz, who collected six K's in two and two-thirds shaky innings against the Twins.  Jose Mijares had another scoreless inning in that game in Sarasota.

I'm starting to get concerned about the collective lack of hitting by the entire Gunslinger roster this spring.  I'd say each of the last three to seven days, I've seen a ton of goose eggs in the hits column.  Yesterday it was Hunter Pence, Carlos Quentin, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and Alexei Ramirez all taking the collar.  I'll have to publish a Spring statistical roundup soon.

Once the draft is complete, I'll start publishing a team-by-team analysis of the competition.  Quick take-away: they are almost all better than me.

IT'S OK, IT'S A WET COLD

Rain and temperatures in the 60's washed out most of the Cactus League games yesterday.  What wussies.  Frankly, I think they were just trying to get home early to set up for their Oscar parties.  I'm sure Ozzie Guillen was dying to Tweet about the red carpet.

Over in the Grapefruit Circuit, Andrew Miller failed his latest audition for the #5 starter spot with the Marlins, yielding three earned runs on three hits and two walks in two innings.  Other than that, nothing much of note.  Hunter Pence hit another triple.  He also got a good write-up as the Astros' budding spiritual leader in this morning's San Antonio Express-News.

I have traded away today's scheduled 8th round pick for a 7th in 2011.  I really should work harder at bundling those extra picks into something more useful next year.  I hate making trades, though, because they always seem to backfire.

YOUNG WHAT'S HIS NAME

In the draft this weekend, the Slingers added Miguel Sano, a 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic signed by the Minnesota Twins for $3.15 million, and Mike Trout, a 19-year-old CF in the Angels' system.  Sano, as our former commissioner JJ put it, is the ultimate "player to be named later", as he briefly decided to take his mother's maiden name, Jean, before going back to his father's surname, Sano.  Nobody really knows if he is actually 16-years-old, as well.  Eh, whatever.  It's only a 7th round pick.  He's supposed to be the best hitter to come out of the Caribbean in years.  Ought to be a fun ride.

Performance wise, Jose Mijares had a clean inning against the Red Sox, but Kevin Millwood didn't make it out of the first, getting pummeled by the Tigers.  I knew that pick was a mistake.  Aaron Crow fanned three in two scoreless innings, and Ben Sheets staggered through an inning and two-thirds with not too much damage and no reported pain.  Carlos Quentin dragged his aching foot around the bases twice after hitting a pair of homers off Carlos Silva of the (and soon not to be of the) Cubs.  Jonathan Sanchez had a typical line against the D-Backs - 2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO.  Keep infuriating and yet tantalizing us, Jonny.

The big injury news is the loss of Russell Martin for 4-6 weeks with a strained groin.  I wonder if I should draft a catcher late just in case.  Chris Snyder is supposed to be healthy, but he'll have to battle Miguel Montero for playing time again.  I hate drafting catchers.  They usually add so little value to the offense that once you get a decent defensive one, you just feel like hanging on to him forever.