WILD TIE

Forty-two more games. Twenty-four road games, 18 home games. This is what separates us from the post-season after last night's 4-3 defeat of the Nats. I'll allow myself about twelve hours of happiness until reality sets in.

J-Roll and Kenny Lofton scored in the first off Washington starter Esteban Loaiza on a Chase Utley sac fly and a Pat Burrell double respectively. In the fourth, Vinny Castilla hit his 943rd home run off Phillies pitching to make it 2-1, and then starter Jon Lieber allowed a double to Christian Guzman, a guy who's been "on the interstate" so long he has a frequent guest card at EconoLodge. A real hitter, Jose Vidro, singled in Guzman to tie it up. Answering back quickly, Rollins and Lofton reached base again in the bottom of the inning, on a single and a double, and Bobby Abreu earned the Phillies Radio Network Star Of The Game (I was listening on the way home last night) by doubling off the Lukoil sign in left center to score both runners. Yakko, Wakko, and Dot held on to the lead barely, with Madson (I guess he would be Yakko) yielding a sac fly to Vinnie after the Nats led off the seventh with a single and a ground-rule double. Wags gave up a leadoff single to Jose Guillen in the ninth before striking out the next two hitters and amazingly getting Vinnie to ground out. Aside from the fourth inning, Lieber was terrific, giving up only three hits and a walk in six innings for his 12th win.

With Houston losing to the Cubs, The Phillies and Astros have identical 64-56 records. We play Houston at home for three in September, and we play the other team with which we are tied in the loss column, Washington, eight more times starting with a doubleheader today. Baseball Prospectus puts our playoff odds at 27.4%, while Houston's are 32.3%. The difference in expected wins between the two teams is only one win, with neither team predicted to win 90 games. Those eight games with Washington, six of which are at RFK, appear to be the key games. They've been tremendous at home (34-22), and we tend not to play well in pitcher's parks. We took two of three there in April, though. This upcoming twelve-game, four-city, bi-coastal road trip with no days off could also serve to expose us like Jude Law changing into his swim trunks (you can find the link to that photo yourself, weirdo. It wasn't that special anyway. I mean...never mind). When you look at it, there isn't really any series we can afford to lose. Let's see...yeah, my twelve hours are nearly up.