A.B.B. 130

With the Mets taking an off day on Thursday, let's focus on the Anybody But Bush race. Yesterday, Barack Obama met with former Democratic Party foe Hillary Clinton in the symbolically chosen town of Unity, New Hampshire. It's a good thing they didn't meet in Hillary's first choice, I Hate You And Everything You Stand For, North Dakota.



It's OK, it's a "Land of friendly people!"

Anyway, it's Obama vs. McCain, or Hussein vs. Bush Part II, if you listen to each one of their campaign staffs. Actually, Obama probably wouldn't want that matchup, based on what happened the first time. How are they doing? Let's run down the state polls.

Alabama - McCain safe
Alaska - McCain close
Arizona - McCain safe
Arkansas - McCain safe
California - Obama safe
Colorado - Obama close
Connecticut - Obama close
Delaware - Obama safe
D.C. - Obama safe
Florida - McCain safe
Georgia - Too close to call
Hawaii - Obama safe
Idaho - McCain safe
Illinois - Obama safe
Indiana - Too close to call
Iowa - Obama close
Kansas - McCain safe
Kentucky - McCain safe
Louisiana - McCain safe
Maine - Obama safe
Maryland - Obama safe
Massachusetts - Obama safe
Michigan - Obama close
Minnesota - Obama safe
Mississippi - McCain close
Missouri - McCain close
Montana - McCain close
Nebraska - McCain safe
Nevada - McCain close
New Hampshire - Obama safe
New Jersey - Obama safe
New Mexico - Obama close
New York - Obama safe
North Carolina - McCain close
North Dakota - McCain close
Ohio - Too close to call
Oklahoma - McCain safe
Oregon - Obama close
Pennsylvania - Obama close
Rhode Island - Obama safe
South Carolina - McCain safe
South Dakota - McCain safe
Tennessee - McCain safe
Texas - McCain close
Utah - McCain safe
Vermont - Obama safe
Virginia - Too close to call
Washington - Obama safe
West Virginia - McCain safe
Wisconsin - Obama safe
Wyoming - McCain safe

Tallying up the electoral votes, that gives us:

McCain safe - 126
McCain close - 80
Obama safe - 200
Obama close - 73
Too close to call - 59

If the election were held today, Obama would win with at least 273 electoral votes to a maximum of 265 for McCain. The battleground states appear to be Virginia, Indiana, Georgia and Ohio, but Obama would win even if he lost all four and maintained his advantage in the rest of the states where he is leading. And if these polls were even a semblance of reality, which we know they are not.

I would have to conclude from this cursory analysis that Obama will have to screw the pooch pretty badly to lose this election. He has 200 safe electoral votes to McCain's 126, which is an enormous cushion. With Obama's cash advantage by way of his decision to decline public funding, you would have to believe that he will only improve his numbers in the battleground states and possibly even turn one or two McCain-close states.

Obama has to watch out for Pennsylvania, Oregon, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. These are all trending his way right now, but not by much. Pennsylvania and Oregon have been going Democratic in the past few elections, but both are high in a demographic he has struggled with, working class whites. Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico have traditionally been Republican strongholds. If he has any more of these Reverend Wright flare-ups or other gaffes, all five of these states could go to McCain.

As for McCain, the fact that my home state of Texas is only in the "close" column says a lot about his candidacy. He has a tremendous amount of work to do, and it is difficult to imagine that he is up to the task. He'll have to turn at least a few of those five states I mentioned earlier, and he'll have to win Ohio, Virginia, and for heavens sake Georgia to have any chance. I can't believe Georgia is a battleground state. That might be apocryphal, but there are a large number of African Americans in increasingly prominent positions there, so it could be true.